Hurricane Hype … 👀

JUNE GULF HURRICANE: It’s the buzz with most of the weather influencer accounts online. Is it happening, or not?

For now, I think that it is ***UNLIKELY***! I am surprised that the GFS model has been somewhat consistent with this, but this is a well-known bias of the model. The GFS will continue to show tropical cyclones that never materialize throughout the season. We have to remember, it is one model!

The GFS is also what we call a “deterministic” model, meaning that it takes one set of possible atmospheric conditions and runs one time. There is an “ensemble” version, called the GEFS that runs the GFS many times with different possible atmospheric conditions. Looking at the GEFS (image 2) which is run 30 different times, only FOUR out of the 30 runs indicate any kind of tropical activity in the gulf. That’s less than a 15% chance.

The European ensembles (image 3) show a low chance for tropical development near South America, but a higher chance for tropical development in the Eastern Pacific. More activity in the Eastern Pacific usually means less activity in the Gulf.

For now, we are too far out to say anything definitive, but seeing tropical activity in the gulf seems unlikely at this time. If that chances, I’ll give you the First Alert! #lawx