MAJOR WEEKEND STORM

Joe Knows Thursday Update:

I love how people are “canceling” this event before it’s even formed because they heard their local media meteorologist say the words: “COLD RAIN.”

Honestly, in the nearly 3 decades I’ve had the privilege of forecasting for the Tri-Cities, I’ve never tracked a more dynamic event as this one. I’ve partnered with several other “Mets” both near and far and this one has a mind of its own, as it’s still literally up in the air. That said, let’s review the latest data:

Unless you didn’t get on social media Wednesday, you likely saw the more “northern storm track” — which means an icy treacherous mess for our neck of the woods. Unfortunately, that storm track has won out over the trends the past 36-48 hours. The well advertised “warm nose” (or warm air advection) will be a key factor on IF we see an ice storm or not and sadly we will have to pretty much “Now-cast” those conditions (in the moment) are based on where the surface temperatures are at when the precip. is falling…

Joe Knows break down… <<Timing The Changes>>

This is such a broad storm and moisture levels rapidly increase, I see the initial first band of frozen precip. coming in by mid to late Saturday morning across much of east TN. Between 9am and 3pm (ball park on timing) band of mostly SN❄️W moves in and could cause a quick slick accumulation, including on area roadways as temps will still be in the 20s during this time frame. Strong southerly winds and this warm nose will have to be monitored closely by Saturday evening and as I see it a period of downsloping could keep our mountain counties relatively dry for a period before more mixing comes back into play with sleet to potentially the dreaded freezing rain Saturday evening into the overnight period. Yes, it does appear on this track “cold rain” develops sometime Sunday morning into the early afternoon hours. As the core precip. moves further eastward we get into the wrap around flow with SN❄️W shower activity building back into the region. Becoming slick again Sunday evening as temps fall into the lower teens by Monday morning.

This will likely be one of those systems where places closer and west of Rogersville (NW of I-81) get more than the ‘usual spots’ around Unicoi or Carter Counties. Temps will be stuck in the 20s Monday and near 0° for a low on Tuesday morning.

Guidance suggests between a tenth to quarter of an inch of ice is possible over our neck of the woods before that possibility of “cold rain” switches it over Sunday. #sleetOMG #ICE #FreezingRain Ohh My!

Count on Joe Knows to keep you ahead of all the wintry-madness! Thanks so much for your trust!

Your Morning Cup Discussion brought to you by:

🛠️Zach of All Trades Construction, remodeling and Landscaping both commercial and residential.

📞Call 423-268-5551 today for more!🛠️

#JoeKnowsSnow #TNwx #VAwx #JoeKnowsWX