2025 Hurricane Season 🌀

🌊HURRICANE SEASON 2025 OUTLOOK:

Quiet start to the hurricane season with the NHC not expecting tropical development over the next 7 days. I know there's a lot of talk of a potential system in the Gulf next week because of forecasts coming from the GFS. Please note, the GFS has a "storm formation rate" that is almost 3x higher than the EURO (based on last year's data). This means it's 3x more likely to forecast a storm than a EURO. This translates to many more false alarms. We'll see this all season long. None of the other models have anything to worry about, so we're not going to worry either. I'll update if that changes.

The El Niño/La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific is in a neutral phase. Meaning, if things don't change, it will neither suppress nor hype Atlantic hurricane activity. How many storms develop and where they go are much more dependent on the daily or weekly weather pattern that develops over the Atlantic during the season than any long-range forcing from the Pacific. Some neutral years are quite busy while others are unusually quiet.

NOAA scientists say there's about a 40% chance that La Niña will return before the end of the hurricane season, however. La Niñas tends to create an atmospheric pattern over the Atlantic that is more conducive for storm development. That means that the second half of the season might be busier than the first. Similar to last year, sadly.

~Count on #JoeKnowsWX to keep you ahead of each and every storm all season long. Pray they stay ‘fish storms’ over the open waters instead of on land.